Stanford (10-4) is a Jekyl & Hyde team thus far this year,
logging (then perceived as) season-defining upset victories over
Xavier and Florida in the preseason NIT, but also logging
remarkable losses at home against Montana and Richmond. Big win over
Gonzaga, then a couple of frightful efforts to open the Pac-10. The greatest differences between Stanford's big wins and horrific
losses have been defense, officiating and injury. The shallow frontcourt
cannot survive a tightly called game, where both Justin Davis and
Rob Little have great exposure, and that spells trouble when
Pac-10 officials call the games. Even more important, Stanford
stole two shocking wins in that NIT when their brilliantly
constructed and executed 1-1-3 zone defense threw opponents out
of sorts. But the defense just disintegrated as the sagging Card
players slacked against North Carolina in the NIT final. Then the
defense again laid down like an old dog against Montana and
Richmond, allowing some middling players to shoot at high
percentages for big games. When you give a high level player like Luke Jackson
or Luke Ridnour opportunities like those, it could spell big trouble.
And if you subtract Justin Davis completely away from this team, as happened in
the second half of the Pac-10 opener at Cal and then for Thursday's game against
Oregon State, the rebounding and offense drop dramatically. Davis is a
huge key to what this team can do well, and his uncertain status for Saturday's
game is the X-factor.
A few systemic weaknesses for this squad are three-point
shooting and foul shooting, which ironically were hallmarks of
Stanford basketball just a few years ago. The other pieces may
come together well in games, and even if the defense plays well,
looking for some weak shooting outside the arc or at the charity
stripe to provide that proverbial Achilles heel. Can the Ducks strike while the iron is hot when Stanford misses their chances?
Can Ernie Kent devise an offensive scheme to counter and even
exploit Stanford's defense? These are key questions in a very
intriguing matchup...
Starters
| #24 |
PG |
Julius Barnes |
Sr |
6-1 |
185 |
13.9 ppg |
3.6 apg |
| #33 |
SG |
Matt Lottich |
Jr |
6-4 |
205 |
9.4 ppg |
2.4 rpg |
| #1 |
SF |
Josh Childress |
So |
6-8 |
200 |
13.5 ppg |
7.1 rpg |
| #22 |
PF |
Justin Davis |
Jr* |
6-9 |
225 |
11.2 ppg |
9.4 rpg |
| #42 |
C |
Rob Little |
So |
6-10 |
275 |
9.4 ppg |
5.6 rpg |
* taken redshirt year
This starting five is Stanford's team. The reserve
players noted below fill important roles in the game, but it is
not a statistical fluke that the starting five have recorded 82%
of the scoring through the first 14 games. This team would have
been radically deeper if not for the early NBA departures last
spring by All-Americans Casey Jacobsen and Curtis Borchardt, and
the most recent NFL departure of two-sport star Teyo Johnson.
Adding salt to the collective Cardinal wound, sophomore starting
point guard Chris Hernandez has suffered two different breaks in
the same bone in his left foot, and is gone for the season. So
what you see is what you get. The Hernandez injury has forced
natural shooting guard Julius Barnes to play the point and
average more than 34 minutes per game. That in turn has elevated
junior off-guard Matt Lottich to a starting position, where he
has provided consistent intensity but inconsistent shooting. The
forwards and center position are very solid, when not in foul
trouble, but the bench behind them is a marked drop-off.
Barnes is one of the most athletically gifted guards to every
don the Cardinal and White, with a off-chart quickness and
vertical leaping ability. He will often explode higher and faster
for a rebound than any big man on the floor for either team, and
then dart up the floor for the fast break. His jump shot has
improved during his time on The Farm, but he will shoot a
mediocre percentage this year as he is forced to handle the ball
and run the offense so much of the time. Indeed, he has launched
more three-point attempts than any other Cardinal, but hit at
just 35% (and falling). His most effective scoring comes off the dribble, with
penetration and his acrobatic body control in the air. His
assist-to-turnover ratio is a very unremarkable 1.2, marking him
as a scoring point rather than one setting up his wings and big
men.
The other scoring guard is Lottich, who has played a quiet but
patient role behind Casey Jacobsen each of the last two years,
now coming into his own as a kid from Chicago with the grit,
fight and shooting stroke that you can't help but love. In
Stanford's 1-1-3 zone defense, Lottich provides much of the
roving hustle and fire that keys steals and stops, though his
scoring on the offensive end has been hit and miss. If he can hit
his treys, opponents may be in trouble. But his man defense is
suspect, and he has yet to prove that he can lift this backcourt
if and when Barnes is not hitting. Contrast his zero-point night at Cal
with his 23-point unconscious outburst to save the Oregon State game.
Which Lottich shows up Saturday is anyone's guess.
Josh Childress is the one budding superstar on this roster
today. A McDonald's All-American out of high school, Childress
has recorded career highs in scoring and rebounding in games this
year and is arguably the most dependable player on this team. He
scores from outside (37% from three), hits the midrange jumper
and can score every which way in the paint. His long frame and
cat-like agility make for a unique skill set that can dunk over
you, drive the baseline reverse lay-up or just pogo-stick you to
death with put-backs. Listed as a small forward, Childress plays
a good deal at the power forward when Stanford wants to go
smaller or when foul trouble strikes the starting pair. Was also rebounding like
crazy until the last two games, where he has grabbed just three and five boards.
Interesting to watch if his chemistry and ease of play is indeed effected
without Davis alongside him.
Justin Davis may be a late bloomer mentally in handling the
college game and utilizing his skills, but he is finally making
his mark at Stanford this season. Davis is leading the Pac-10 in
rebounding currently and scoring much more smartly than at any
time before in his college career. His best chances come off
rebounds and low-post moves deep in the paint, but the redshirt
junior forward is also hitting a little fadeaway jumper at six to
eight feet with increasing frequency. His jump shot and free
throw stroke are dramatically improved, which make him a more
credible threat. Still, Davis can only do what he can do when in
the game, and he is still suspect for foul trouble with touch
fouls. He may live and die this year with the whistle, and it is
no overstatement to say that the style of officiating in a game
can dictate his prospects. Before his MCL sprain in the Cal game, he was
the hottest player on the team and maybe the Pac-10. He honestly was
putting everything together at the highest level of his career, starting to make
people whisper "NBA." He is fitted with a custom brace for his
left knee and dressed out for Thursday's game but did not play. He is
questionable for Saturday and may be a gametime decision. He is sorely
needed, but rushing him back and risking injury that loses him for the season is
a grave concern.
Rob Little has similarly been limited by foul trouble, and had
his best games when away from the "iron fist" of Pac-10
officiating. Sometimes the first half, sometimes the second half,
this sophomore center has several times logged just three minutes
in a period. When he is in the game, he has shown flashes of
scoring ability that no objective observer could expect after his
freshman campaign. Little can honestly hit a short jumper today,
but logs most of his points when fed in the low post. After a
revolutionary off-season conditioning campaign, this big body has
turned his 18% body fat to 8% and transformed himself into one of
the biggest and strongest low post threats on the West Coast. Like Davis,
the past couple weeks have seen a step up in his game. But without Davis
in the lineup Thursday night, double teams hit Little literally every time he
touched the ball.
Key Reserves
The above stats don't lie - this Stanford bench is not a
productive one. Three freshmen provide most of the bodies, though
Nick Robinson and Joe Kirchofer have been in the program for
three and four years. Robinson and Dan Grunfeld are the only two
reserves honestly capable of scoring meaningful points in this
game, but it would be a surprise if either broke into double
digits. Robinson is more valuable for his defense and rebounding,
as his long frame and underrated athletic abilities can create
problems. But his jumper is rarely used, with more attempts found
in the paint on offensive rebound opportunities. Nick Robinson is
known in the Stanford locker room as "Pops," as he is
23 years old after having taken a Mormon mission after high
school - so look for maturity both physically and mentally in his
minutes. He logged his first career start Thursday night in place of the injured
Davis, and though undersized at 6'6" for the power forward, he defended
well, hit two big second half buckets and grabbed a career high seven boards. Grunfeld plays at level much higher than you could
believe with his youth and scant athleticism, but finds a way to
make plays with his exceptional basketball savvy. The son of
former NBA player and now general manager Ernie Grunfeld, this
wing has been deeply immersed in hoopdom all his life. It shows
when he curls off screens or makes that sweet pass. Just scored
in double figures for the first time in his career the other week against UC
Irvine and then hit for nine against the Zags - he is one of the most pure shooters
Stanford has seen in years. May score driving or spot-up shooting.
Jason Haas has been quickly elevated to a pressure-filled role
as the team's #2 point guard, with erstwhile starter Chris
Hernandez lost for the season with a broken foot. Like Grunfeld,
he brings a little more savvy and feel for the game than you
might think, especially with his very light recruitment out of
high school. But Haas took an extra prep year and played with big
men (Luol Deng and Charlie Villaneuva) who will be in the NBA in
a year or two. His variegated high school experiences have asked
him to distribute at times, while scoring others. His greatest
comfort right now comes in running the team, and it is a rare occurrence for him to put up a shot. Make no mistake - Haas has a
good looking jumper, but he is making the grand adjustment to the
demanding responsibilities of a Stanford point guard, which have
him consumed currently. If Oregon decides to press, watch Haas
closely. He has the potential to turn the ball over, but also
loves to push the ball and has the handle and moxie to bust
through a press and create quick transition points.
The big men off the bench are Joe Kirchofer and Matt Haryasz,
though neither have made strong contributions yet this year. They
both have the potential to rebound, but are limited for different
reasons. Haryasz is still adjusting to the speed and strength of
the college game, and can pick up personal fouls in a big hurry.
He will go over the back for boards, or more often swing at
blocked shots that he could easily swat with his arms vertical.
This freshman from Arizona was regarded as the #1 prep center on
the West Coast last year, and you might see sparks with his shot
blocking and shooting touch. But again, he has a lot of physical
and mental progress before he can consistently contribute for
even a stretch of a few minutes. Kirchofer has the experience and
knows what to do in a game, but he has the least quickness and
athleticism of Stanford's four post players. You will see that
when he tries to defend a post player with any quickness, or in
loose ball situations where Kirchofer does not get off the floor
quickly for the rebound. Kirchofer can be steady, if not
spectacular, and has one very solid go-to move with his short- or
mid-range hook shot. Both players have to log more minutes if Davis can't
go on Saturday.