Mr Pac-10’s Weekly Review
This story originally published on CollegeFootballNews.com
Jeff Tuel rambles vs. OSU
Mr Pac Ten
Posted Nov 19, 2010


Collegefootballnews’ Matthew Smith Reviews all the Pac-10 Games, Week Eleven

Rising:
Washington St: The biggest win they’ve had in a very long time.
USC: A key win for the Trojans. Even without a bowl game this season can be a success.
Cal: Yes they lost, but they played very tough in defeat to a great team.

Hovering:
Stanford: Not a great effort, but they won.
Arizona St: It was a good effort, but they really needed the win here.

Falling:
Oregon: The road woes are back. They found a way to get it done, and that’s a good thing, but this just isn’t the same team away from Autzen.
Arizona: This team’s Rose Bowl dreams are now dead even before the trip to Autzen.
Oregon St: In two weeks they’ve gone from bowl lock to bowl longshot. Just a stunning collapse.

USC 24, @ Arizona (-4) 21
my pick: @ Arizona 31, USC 28

What to take from this:
If you’re USC:

This was a huge win for this team, this program and this coaching staff. Sure, this isn’t one of the great USC teams that came through earlier this decade, but this is far, far better than the collapse some thought might happen. 7-3 against a pretty tough schedule is a great achievement. If they can even just close 2-1 they’ll hit nine wins, and if they can sweep the last three that’ll be a 10 win season, which would be a truly amazing achievement given what they’ve had to deal with.

If you’re Arizona:
The Wildcats got exposed a bit in this game. Nick Foles played great, but the run game was absent and the defense got carved up by USC. This is still a good team, but it’s far from a great one. Presuming they lose to Oregon and beat ASU, that’s a 8-4 season, which is a pretty good achievement, but far less than what they were hoping for when the season started.

Stanford (-4) 17, @ Arizona St 13
my pick: Stanford 28, @ Arizona St 20

What to take from this:
If you’re Stanford:

They got the win. In a game where things weren’t really working, and where they had Owusu out injured, they found a way to get it done. It was a stellar performance by the defense, and while clearly it was a poor game on offense, overall it was a road win against an ASU team that’s far better than their 4-6 record would indicate. They won’t be framing it and putting it on a pedestal… but they’ll take it.

If you’re Arizona St:
In two straight weeks, the Sun Devils had a chance to score a key win against a tough opponent to put them back on track for bowl eligibility. And in two straight weeks, they couldn’t quite get it done. I strongly suspect that next year will be a big move forward for this team, given their youth and struggles in close game after close game… but this won’t be a bowl team this year (since they probably needed seven wins, and even six will be tough).

Oregon (-19.5) 15, @ Cal 13
my pick: Oregon 38, @ Cal 24

What to take from this:
If you’re Oregon:

They got the win. In a game where things weren’t really working, where they had a couple key plays go against them (most notably the strip and score by the Cal D), they found a way to get it done. It was a stellar performance by the defense, and while clearly it was a poor game on offense, overall it was a road win against an Cal team that’s better than their 5-5 record would indicate, especially at home. They won’t be framing it and putting it on a pedestal… but they’ll take it. That said, this team really has to start playing better away from Autzen on a somewhat consistent basis. Presuming they win out and go to the title game (which gets more likely by the week), they won’t get their huge home crowd edge in Glendale. The Civil War will be very telling as to whether this was more of a fluke or a meaningful sign of trouble on the horizon.

If you’re Cal:
This was a game they were supposed to get killed in, and they were in it until the bitter end. It’s a tough loss to swallow, since they really could have won it if they’d made a couple more plays here or there, but it’s still something to build on. This level of effort gives them a reasonable shot at upsetting Stanford, and gives them a great shot of beating Washington to end the season. Just one of those gets them a bowl game, and right now that’s looking pretty likely.

@ Washington St 31, Oregon St (-24.5) 14
my pick: @ Oregon St 31, Washington St 13

What to take from this:

If you’re Washington St:
To say this was unexpected is an understatement. Wazzu, a huge underdog, went into Corvallis and flat-out dominated. It’s a huge step forward for this program, a validation of everything Wulff has been doing the past couple years. Is this suddenly a good team? No, but there’s clear progress, and that was his mandate. No matter what else happens the rest of the way this year, mandate achieved. This team has been generally competitive in Pac-10 play and has a league win to show for it to boot.

If you’re Oregon St:
Before UCLA this was a lock for a bowl game. Now they’re a total mess, and are almost certainly home for the holidays. Yes, James Rodgers’ injury hurts this team, but this collapse was a total team effort. They’ve got around a 50-50 shot of finishing the year 0-5, which would be a stunning collapse for a team that always seems to finish strong.

Pac-10 Games Record:
This Week: 2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS
Season: 53-11 SU, 27-29-1 ATS

National Games of the Week:

@ Alabama (-13) 30, Mississippi St 10
my pick: @ Alabama 28, Miss St 17

South Carolina 36, @ Florida (-6.5) 14
my pick: @ Florida 28, South Carolina 24

@ Missouri (-13) 38, Kansas St 28
my pick: @ Missouri 31, Kansas St 27

National Games Record:
This Week: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS
Season: 22-14 SU, 18-17-1 ATS

Bad Lines

Purdue +12.5 vs Michigan
Covered by 1.5 points

FIU +8 @ Troy
Covered by 25 points and outright upset

North Texas +10.5 @ Mid Tenn St
Covered by 16.5 points and outright upset

NC St -18.5 vs Wake
Covered by 16.5 points

Bad Lines Record:
This Week: 4-0
Season: 17-27-3

Mr Pac-10's 2010 Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com


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